Dr. Debolina Kundu and Dr. Arpita Banerjee

The release of the World Population Prospects (WPP) 2024 report by UNDESA has brought to light several interesting facts. By taking into consideration, a whole range of demographic evidence available from country wise population and housing censuses, information on birth and death rates (from civil registration and vital statistics) and from 3,190 surveys, the WPP 2024 Revision has estimated population trends on several important parameters for 237 countries and areas up to 2100 - worldwide and also country-specific.

The report explicitly states that ‘population growth, population ageing, urbanisation and international migration’ are four main pillars shaping the global demographic trend. Changes in the size and the structure of the population vary country-wise – which can be both a challenge as well as an opportunity for them. According to the WPP, 2024 report, predicting future population change (in short and medium terms) is much more stable – whereby the countries can initiate necessary steps to manage their population trajectories through suitable policy design as well as adhering to targets of 2030 Agenda of Sustainable Development Goals.

Key Population Trends: What Does the Projection Say

The world population is expected to continue to grow - from 8161.97 million in 2024 to its expected peak of 10283.08 million in 2080, post which it will start declining gradually reaching 10180.16 million by the end of the century. Considering the two most populous countries of the world - China and India - have already exchanged their rank when India emerged as the most populous country in 2023 (China: 1422 million; India: 1438 million, WPP, 2024). As per the estimate of WPP, 2024, India will continue to remain the most populous country for the rest of this century (Table 1, Fig. 1).

As per estimates from WPP 2024, China’s current population is 1419.3 million (2024) which is expected to fall to 1210 million (2054) and subsequently to 633.37 million by 2100. Much of the decline of China’s population is
attributed to ‘ultra-low fertility’ with fewer than 1.14 live-birth per woman.

India, on the other hand, will show a differential trajectory – the population in the country will continue to grow through 2054 and is expected to reach a peak by the latter half of the century or beyond 2100. Population in India will likely decline by 12% after reaching its peak in the early 2060s at about 1700.9 million (Table 1). WPP report suggests that countries showing similar trajectories like India are in an intermediate phase of demographic transition – where fertility levels have started to decline, but have remained above the replacement level (2.1). Further population increase is also attributed to a decline in mortality rate – because of improved medical facilities as compared to earlier period.

Figure 2 suggests that India’s fertility rate has gone down significantly in 2020, even lower than the global average and will continue to decline further. In 2100, India’s expected fertility rate will stand at 1.69. In close conjunction with decline in fertility rate, India’s birth rate also shows a decline, especially since 2020 and will continue to decline further (Figure 3). Interestingly, the country’s death rate, which will remain much below the birth rate till 2040, will start to increase from 2050 and is expected to equal the birth rate in 2060. It is interesting to note that, as per WPP (2024), India’s population will peak at 2060 – reaching 1700.9 million mark – beyond which it will start to decline. Thus, this decline in the country’s population after 2060 is explained by an increase in the death rate as one of the component of population change.

This trajectory of population change will have a huge impact on the size and age-structure of the population – the youth population (15-24 years) will reach its maximum share (out of the total population) by 2025 – beyond which the country will move towards ageing – calling for investment need to cater these age-cohorts.

India’s Age-structure: Present and Future Trends

Recent data indicates that the young population (15-24 years) constituted a significant proportion of the country's demography from 2000-2020 and is projected to maintain a substantial share beyond 2020 as well (Fig. 4). However, with the progression of the demographic transition, the proportion of the young population in India is expected to decline gradually, accompanied by a shift towards an increasing proportion of the aged population (65+ years).

While comparing India’s age structure with that of the global average, data shows that the share of youth (15-24 years) in India was higher in 2000 - 2020 than the global average, but the country’s share is expected to fall below that of the global average from 2040 onwards.

Further, the country’s population in the age group of 25-64 years (coinciding mostly with the working age group) will continue to increase till 2040, post which it is projected to decline with a simultaneous increase in the proportion of the aged population (65+ years). By, 2060, India’s aged population (65+ years) will outnumber the population of the first two age cohorts (0-4 years and 5-14 years). An increase in aged-population in the country will lead to a surge in the death rate (after 2060), which is evident from the previous discussion (see Fig. 3)

Thus, the shift in age structure over time calls for certain interventions at the policy level:

• At present there is a need to invest in education, health, and infrastructure requirements for the young population of the country to enhance their productivity and skills. Further, it is important to create jobs to reap the demographic dividend.

• At a later stage, when the country will witness an increase in the aged population, then it should concentrate on designing more opportunities for the aged, support in multigenerational workforce, and create ample opportunities to extend working lives for those who wish to continue working. In this regard, experiences and learnings from those countries can be leveraged which have already experienced this structural shift.